Research and Markets
(http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/386839/colombia_oil_and_g) has
announced the addition of the "Colombia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2009" report to
their offering. 

This Colombia Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and
strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government
departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive
intelligence on Colombia's oil and gas industry. 

The latest Colombia Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for
3.15% of Latin America regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 6.38% of
supply. Latin America regional oil use of 6.93mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001
reached 7.95mn b/d in 2008. It should average 7.71mn b/d in 2009 and then rise
to around 8.46mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was 10.30mn b/d in 2001,
and in 2008 averaged 9.85mn b/d. It is set to rise to 10.58mn b/d by 2013. Oil
exports are slipping, because demand growth is exceeding the pace of supply
expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 3.37mn b/d. This total
had fallen to 1.90mn b/d in 2008 and is forecast to be 2.13mn b/d in 2013. The
principal exporters will be Mexico, Venezuela, Ecuador and Brazil. 

In terms of natural gas, the region in 2008 consumed 205.6bn cubic metres (bcm),
with demand of 243.6bcm targeted for 2013, representing 18.2% growth. Production
of 212.3bcm in 2008 should reach 280.4bcm in 2013, and implies 36.8bcm of net
exports the end of the period. Colombia's share of gas consumption in 2008 was
3.99%, while its share of production was 4.29%. By 2013, its share of gas
consumption is forecast to be 3.98%, with the country accounting for 3.92% of
supply. 

For 2009 as a whole, the publisher is now assuming an average OPEC basket price
of US$55.00 per barrel (bbl), a 41.5% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). This
represents an upgrade from the US$52 forecast they have stuck with during the
past three quarters. Their OPEC basket assumption delivers likely Brent, WTI,
Urals and Dubai prices of US$56.30, US$57.50, US$55.60 and US$55.60/bbl
respectively. For 2010, they expect to see a recovery to US$60.00/bbl for the
OPEC price (up from their previous forecast of US$58), gaining further ground to
US$65.00 in 2011 and to US$70.00/bbl in 2012. Their post-2010 forecasts are
unchanged and they are continuing to use a long-term price assumption of
US$70.00 for 2013-2018. 

In 2009, the author is now assuming a global average gasoline price of
US$62.12/bbl, with the fuel having peaked in June. The overall y-o-y fall in
2009 gasoline prices is put at 40.0%. The gasoil forecast is for an average
price of US$68.62/bbl, assuming a monthly high of US$92.49/bbl in December. The
fullyear outturn represents a 43.4% fall from the 2008 level. The annual jet
price level for 2009 is forecast to be US$65.17/bbl. This compares with
US$124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put by the author at
US$49.06/bbl, down 43.9% from the previous year's level. 

Colombian real GDP is now forecast by the author to decline by 1.4% in 2009,
compared with growth of 2.5% in 2008. The publisher is assuming 1.2% growth in
2010, 3.8% in 2011, followed by 3.3% in 2012 and 3.2% in 2013. The government is
working hard to encourage international oil company (IOC) investment and boost
near-term domestic oil production, aided by state-owned Ecopetrol. They are
assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 675,000b/d by 2013, with
the country expected to pump 615,000b/d in 2009. Consumption beyond 2009 is
forecast to increase by 3-4% per annum to 2013, implying demand of 266,000b/d by
the end of the forecast period. The country's export capability will therefore
rise to around 409,000b/d by 2013. Gas consumption is forecast to increase from
8.2bcm in 2008 to 9.7bcm over the period, met by rising domestic production,
which will also provide modest exports to Venezuela. 

Between 2008 and 2018, the publisher is forecasting a decrease in Colombian oil
production of 14.2%, with crude volumes peaking at 675,000b/d in 2013 and then
falling steadily to 530,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Oil
consumption between 2008 and 2018 is set to increase by 31.9%, with growth
slowing to an assumed 3.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the
country using 309,000 b/d by 2018. Gas production is expected to rise gradually,
from 9.1bcm in 2008 to 15.0bcm in 2018. With demand growth of 52.4%, this
implies export potential reaching 2.5bcm by 2018. Details of the author's
10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. 

Colombia ranks fourth behind Peru in the author's updated Upstream Business
Environment rating, well ahead of Trinidad. While the absolute resource base is
modest, the competitive environment is attractive and licensing terms have
improved to become some of the best in the region. Country risk is moderate and
Colombia is well placed to retain its strong position in the league table. The
country now ranks equal first alongside Brazil in the updated Downstream
Business Environment rating, reflecting its oil demand growth outlook, refining
capacity expansion plans, moderate Country Risk and low retail site intensity.
Argentina holds third place, but arguably lacks the potential to challenge
Colombia. 

Key Topics Covered:

* Executive Summary 
* SWOT Analysis 
* Oil Supply And Demand 
* Gas Supply And Demand 
* Composite Scores 
* Business Environment 
* Macroeconomic Outlook 
* Glossary of Terms 
* Regional Oil Demand 
* Methodology & Risks To Forecasts

Companies Mentioned:

* Empresa Colombiana de Petróleos (Ecopetrol) 
* BP Colombia 
* Chevron Colombia 
* Occidental de Colombia 
* Petrobras Colombia 
* TEPMA Colombia (Total) 
* ExxonMobil Colombia 
* Repsol YPF 
* Royal Dutch Shell 
* Gran Tierra 
* Cepsa 
* Perenco 
* Petro Vista 
* Pacific Rubiales 
* Hocol Colombia

For more information visit
http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/386839/colombia_oil_and_g